AV: A Tactical Question for England ?

I'm in the 'Oh alright then, if that's the only thing on offer' camp on AV.

That's simply because, on balance, I think it is just a tinsey bit more sensible that FPTP. But proportional and fair it sure ain't. Not that any electoral system can necessarily guarantee those aims: you pick a electoral system to fit the underlying political sociology in my view, not to change it. Therefore a system which allows (it doesn't guarantee this of course) the two major parties to be cut down to something closer to their declining linkages to the political outlook(s) of the mass of us is probably preferable. That's as far I as tend to think about it before giving up with a yawn.

Up to now, I've been a bit dismissive of folk who think about this choice in purely tactical terms. I distrust those who tell me they'll be voting this way or that because of some predicted short term political effect. In general, I simply don't think people - even practiced spinners from the no-longer-smoke-filled backrooms - can predict that sort of thing. Life is just too messy. But this poll has concentrated my thoughts: it appears that pro independence parties - the SNP and Scottish Greens - may, for the first time, win a majority in Holyrood.

Now, this might not happen of course. & even if it does it's a long way from Salmond having a majority in his parliament to him actually wining a referendum on Scottish Independence. But it does focus the leftwing English mind on how FPTP elections might be expected to go in the future without the Caledonian contribution. We'd be looking at more or less permanent Tory government.

So I've changed my view. There is a tactical question involved here, but it's not about giving Cameron or Clegg a black eye, or encouraging the 'left' LibDems to jump ship or whatever. It's about an insurance policy against the possible day when the Scots leave us.

Who's The Third Happiest Man in Britain ?

Contra quite a lot of the instant reaction I suspect novelty value alone will give this coalition government something of a honeymoon. Even the instant cuts programme we're promised in the emergency budget will, in all probability, be weathered as it will take a little while for the implications to work through to operational budgets.

Yes, it is entirely possible that there will be rebellions on either the Tory or Lib-Dem side which threaten the coalition. But, actually, I thought I saw the cold logic of political professionalism on show from both sets of negotiating teams over the last 4 days and I reckon those clever folk in both Central Offices will have game played their way through such troubles. Or at least the troubles that are predicable at this point anyway. Finkelstein was interesting on Newsnight - he clearly said both sides were playing for bigger stakes here: they want a permanent re-alignment of British politics to freeze out Labour. More prosaically, it may be in both sides interest to actually respect the agreement to have a fixed term 5 year parliament as it would allow the initial opprobrium coming towards both sets of party leaders to die down before another test at the polls.

In any event, let's face it, Labour is really not going to be in a position to exploit any such difficulties in the coalition for a while is it? At 29% in the polls, broke, defeated and hemorrhaging C1/C2 votes it is in a terrible position. There was even a suggestion yesterday that it might have to delay its Leadership contest whilst it raised the necessary money to conduct it. So rhetorical calls for 'left' Lib-Dems to join Labour may fall on pretty deaf ears.

Most of all, despite what the Labour Left are now going to claim, New Labour isn't dead. It may be running on empty in ideological terms, its' leading lights may be exhausted by 13 years of government but the Labour Party is about to conduct a Leadership election in which all the serious candidates will be, in one form or another, representatives of New Labour. Sure, McDonnell and Cruddas will briefly fly the flags of 'hard' and 'soft' Left respectively. But McDonnell will lose badly and Cruddas will fold back into the traditional posture of (internal) loyal opposition. No: the Labour Party will continue to be led by the New Labour clique.

So if/when industrial unrest or social disorder develops as the cuts bite Labour is unlikely to be able to channel the anger. It will be striving for a position of 'responsibility' : it is, after all, now essential the party of public sector managers - a technocratic entity whose prime function is to tweak the system through endless box ticking regulatory exercises.

But one thing missing from this morning's coverage is any sustained focus on the third happiest man in Britain. Step forward Alex Salmond, the man who promised a referendum on independence. The odds on him winning it must have just shortened considerably.

Glenrothes: A Sassenach Suspicion

So Labour won. & the Labour blogosphere seems both joyful and, to be frank, pretty surprised. Is everything in the garden rosy now, then?

Labour have certainly stopped the rot - but whether they have just halted, rather than completely reversed, their decline in the polls remains to be seen. It is instructive that the Labour vote went up - but the SNP vote went up nine times more in absolute terms. There was also a collapse of both Tory (down 48% on the general election) and Lib-Dem (down 80% on general election) votes. I wonder where those votes went? I doubt many Tories, for whom Unionism is the big question in Scotland, went directly over to the SNP. At least one was interviewed on the TV last night saying he had voted Labour to keep the SNP out. I do wonder if there has been a 'double shuffle' of voters: ex Tory and Lib Dem unionists voting Labour to stay British, and ex-Labour working class voters deciding that, actually, it doesn't matter whether their social democratic party of choice wears the red braces of Gordon Gecko Brown or a kilt. In any event, I don't think Labour can count on a collapse of the Tory or Lib-Dem vote in England.

As for the Scottish nationalism thing: it's not going away, it's just suffered a tactical defeat, as all political currents do from time to time. Alex Salmond in particular must regret waxing lyrical about an arc of prosperity including, ahem, Iceland...But they know that the Tory claim that there is a fundamental democratic deficit in the UK's current lop-side devolution is basically true. So the SNP can wait till that question raises its' head again, and make sufficient hay when the time comes, because any attempt to fix our strange and creakingly mis-constructed constitutional arrangements plays straight onto their home turf.