Hey, Kondratiev's in fashion again! Haven't heard of him since wading through Ernst Mandel all those years ago. Since his long wave theory is so difficult to prove - or indeed, disprove - it can function beautifully as a kind of 'magic bullet' which buttresses any particular argument anyone would like to make about the short term economic future.
But for some historians, Kondratiev is a wimp focused on piffling short -term issues.
Here's Cicero on the Roman credit crunch:
"Defend the republic from this danger and believe me when I tell you - what you see for yourselves - that this system of monies, which operates at Rome in the Forum, is bound up in, and is linked with, those Asian monies; the loss of one inevitably undermines the other and causes its collapse."
Er, yeah. & then came Sulla, followed a generation or so later by the collapse of the Republic in favour of the Empire.
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